Larry Ellison’s $40B Warner Bros. guarantee raises financial leverage doubts

Larry Ellison’s guarantee of over $40 billion for the Warner Bros. deal casts doubt on his financial leverage, and the market for whether he will be the richest person on December 31 sits at 1.2% YES.

Ellison’s financial maneuvering has caught traders’ attention in the Richest Person on December 31, 2026 market. Odds remain at 1.2% YES, largely unchanged. With 251 days to resolution, the price reflects skepticism about Ellison’s ability to surpass Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.

The market has seen no face value volume recently. Ellison’s net worth, weighed down by Oracle’s debt and the $40 billion-plus Warner Bros. guarantee, is under scrutiny. Daily volume is zero, meaning traders aren’t adjusting positions based on Ellison’s financial news.

At 1.2¢, a YES share pays $1 if Ellison becomes the richest person by December 31, an 83x return. That would require a massive positive swing in Oracle’s stock or a downturn for competitors. The price says traders treat this as a long shot.

Watch for Oracle’s next earnings report and any strategic moves from Ellison that could affect his net worth. Also track major financial developments involving Musk and Bezos that could shift the leaderboard.

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