German Chancellor calls Trump “humiliated” by Iran amid ongoing conflict

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has labeled President Donald Trump as “humiliated” by Iran during the ongoing conflict. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 2% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago.

The April 30 contract’s collapse reflects growing skepticism about a near-term resolution, driven by Merz’s criticism and Iran’s firm stance against US ceasefire terms. The May 31 contract trades at 29% YES, down from 38% a day ago. The June 30 market is at 46% YES, down from 57% yesterday. The biggest term structure jump is from April 30 to May 31, which suggests traders anticipate potential catalysts in that window.

The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April has cratered to 4% YES, down from 14% a day ago. Daily USDC volume is $1,944, which points to limited engagement but high conviction among those trading.

Merz’s comments point to the absence of a clear exit strategy and the ongoing economic fallout. Market moves suggest traders expect the conflict to persist without near-term diplomatic breakthroughs. At 4¢, a YES share on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands pays $1 if it happens by end of April, a 25x return, but the probability implies it’s a long shot.

Watch for developments around the Strait of Hormuz or new statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Shifts in their rhetoric could move these markets quickly.

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