WTI Crude Oil prices have surged 44% amid the ongoing Iran war, but the odds of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sit at just
The April 30 market is priced at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, suggesting limited conviction among traders that current supply disruptions will push prices to record levels.
Prices for energy commodities like jet fuel and sulfur have also spiked, but the market for WTI hitting $160 by end of April shows no active trading. Total USDC trading volume is $2,513, and it would take only $695 to move the market by five percentage points. That thin liquidity means the market can’t absorb major swings without significant new developments, but it also means there’s almost no one betting on this outcome.
The US naval blockade and stalled talks in Pakistan represent ongoing risks, but the odds don’t reflect a panic scenario. At 1¢, a YES share offers a potential
Watch for OPEC+ announcements on production cuts or increases, and any shifts in US-Iran negotiations or military actions that could affect the Strait of Hormuz. Either could move these odds quickly.
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