Oil prices rise despite Iran’s Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal

Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t soothed market jitters, with crude oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel. The odds of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sit at 0.2% YES, down from 1% a day ago.

Market reaction

Traders are skeptical about the durability of Iran’s proposal, which includes a toll scheme for ships passing through the Strait. The WTI Crude Oil market shows minimal confidence in reaching high price targets, with April contracts at just 0.2% YES. Oil’s all-time high by April 30 is priced at 0.4% YES, down from 2% a day earlier. Traders are pricing in possible disruptions or permanent tolls that could keep prices elevated even if the Strait reopens.

Why it matters

Liquidity in these markets is thin: just $2,023 in actual USDC traded across the WTI Crude Oil predictions. It takes only $1,632 to shift the odds by 5 percentage points in the WTI market, meaning a single large order could move prices substantially. The largest recent move was a minor 1-point spike in the crude oil all-time high market. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 remains uncertain, and without clear resolution or terms, traders are holding back significant bets.

What to watch

Any announcements from Iranian leadership or U.S. responses to Iran’s proposal could directly move these odds. At 0.2¢, a YES share for WTI hitting $160 by April offers a 500x return, but taking that position requires believing in a rapid and effective resolution to the Strait standoff, something the market clearly doesn’t expect right now.

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