Trump’s imminent declaration of victory over Iran suggests a shift toward de-escalation. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have dropped to
Traders adjusted odds across related markets. The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market remains at 0.2% YES, showing minimal expectation of regime collapse within the next six days. The May 31 market is now at 3% YES, down from 5% yesterday.
The US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026 market sits at
The actual USDC traded tells a more modest story than face values suggest. The Iranian regime fall market has $35,587 in daily USDC trading, while the US declaration of war market has just $392. It takes $16,830 to shift the Iranian regime odds five points, meaning substantial capital is required to move the market, which suggests institutional interest.
Trump’s declaration fits with previous de-escalation signals, including ongoing negotiations and a conditional ceasefire. At 7.5¢, buying YES shares for a regime fall by June 30 would require believing in a dramatic shift within two months, a scenario that looks increasingly unlikely.
Keep an eye on Trump’s national address and any updates from Islamabad negotiations. A confirmed ceasefire or sanctions relief could further stabilize the region and move these markets.
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