Trump set to reject Iran’s offer to reopen Strait of Hormuz without nuclear deal

President Trump appears set to reject Iran’s latest offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without addressing its nuclear program. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April sit at 50% YES, up from 14% just 24 hours ago but down from 62% a week ago.

Market reaction

Volume spiked today, with the largest move being an 8-point jump at 12:08 PM. Traders appear to be betting on a last-minute shift in Trump’s stance. But the market is thin: order book depth shows it takes just $119 to move the price 5 points, making it vulnerable to swings from large trades.

Why it matters

The odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 are at 2.8% YES, up from 10% yesterday. The term structure jumps to 62% for end of May, meaning traders see more room for resolution over a slightly longer timeline. Total volume across the peace deal markets is $854,504 in USDC. The largest single move in the last 24 hours on that contract was a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM.

Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal keeps the US position fixed on nuclear concerns as a precondition. At 50¢, a YES share on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands pays 2x if it resolves, which explains the hedging activity despite broad skepticism about a deal.

What to watch

Any formal announcements from the White House or changes in operational language from CENTCOM. Trump’s Truth Social activity and signals from Pakistani or Chinese mediators could also move these markets.

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