The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC starting May 1, and the Crude Oil Price Predictions by End of June market now prices crude oil hitting $90 by end of June with traders pricing in a potential 25% move.
## Market reaction
Both the Crude Oil Price Predictions by End of June and Crude Oil Predictions for June markets are expected to see increased activity and sharp price movements as the UAE’s exit approaches. With 67 days left until resolution, no actual USDC volume has been recorded yet in the June markets, meaning traders are still processing the news. Thin liquidity means even modest trades can have outsized effects on market prices.
## Why it matters
The UAE is a major oil producer. Its exit from the cartel weakens OPEC’s ability to coordinate production limits, which could lead to increased output from the UAE and non-OPEC producers like the US and Canada. The strategic split between the UAE and Saudi Arabia adds real uncertainty to supply forecasts. Removing production constraints could push prices higher as the UAE acts on its own production capacity.
## What to watch
– Official statements from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members responding to the exit – Production announcements from the UAE, particularly any plans to ramp up output – Moves by non-OPEC producers to increase supply in response – Volume entering the June crude oil prediction markets as traders begin positioning
Buying YES shares at current levels could pay off if the UAE’s exit leads to the expected supply disruptions and price increases. The absence of volume so far means early movers face both opportunity and risk from illiquid order books.
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