What to know:
- Trump now says “smart people like” prediction markets and the U.S. shouldn’t be “left out,” after criticizing them days earlier.
- Polymarket and Kalshi hit $23.6B combined March volume, Token Terminal reports.
- Trump Media plans markets on Truth Social with Crypto.com, while This stake sits in a trust.
U.S. President Donald Trump has softened his prediction market views only a few days after criticising the incentivised betting markets. While volumes on the blockchain betting platforms are hitting new records, more authorities are examining the issue.
From Criticism to Conditional Acceptance
In Florida on Saturday, US President responded when asked about prediction markets that “I know some people who are very smart. They like it, ” then added, “A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t do it.”
This comment contrasts with those given at the White House on Thursday, when he said that he was “not happy” with prediction markets, and “I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is” by pointing to well-timed bets based on Iran war events. He also mentioned that the global environment is like a casino because “everybody likes betting sites.
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Record Volumes Highlight Market Expansion
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have grown exponentially in the past year. According to Token Terminal, March trading volume across these two decentralized and regulated venues was $23.6 billion. Driven by the ability to trade a variety of real-world results from macroeconomic indicators to geopolitics, the venues have attracted institutional eyes and retail eyes to the wider crypto and web3 space.
This is reinforced by its political associations. Donald Trump Jr. invested in Polymarket in August and sits on its advisory board, as well as advising rival Kalshi (from January 2025). Trump Media revealed in October that they plan to run prediction markets on their social network, Truth Social, in association with Crypto.com.
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Trust Transfer and Ongoing Regulatory Debate
Following his election to office, Donald Trump transferred his stake in Trump Media into a trust with Donald Trump Jr. as trustee. The dynamic commentary summarizes the continuing controversy regarding prediction markets, regulation, and financial innovation. As trading activity expands and policymakers consider regulation, politics, blockchain technology, and event-collateralized trading now remain intertwined.
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