Yemen backs Iran, warns US against military actions in escalating conflict

Yemen has officially backed Iran and warned the US against further military actions in the region. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 sit at 2.2% YES, down from 14% a week ago.

Yemen’s pledge of support for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz adds a new party to the conflict, making a ceasefire less likely. The April 30 market reflects this, with odds nearly flatlining as traders price in further hostilities. The May 31 market for a permanent peace deal is at 29.5% YES, down from 52% a week ago.

Volume on the ceasefire market is $70,162 in actual USDC traded. The order book is thin: only $1,096 would shift the odds by 5 percentage points, which means a single large trade could move the price substantially. The permanent peace deal market is thicker, requiring $6,238 for a comparable move.

For traders, Yemen’s backing of Iran represents a concrete escalation. At 2.2¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire is declared, a 45.5x return. But that requires a diplomatic breakthrough within a day.

Watch for any shift in US rhetoric or intermediary actions, particularly from Oman or Qatar. Trump’s next move on Iran could reprice both markets quickly.

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