US economy growing at ‘solid pace’ despite Iran war energy shock

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy has been expanding at a “solid pace” amid the Iran war energy shock, with consumer spending and data center investment holding strong. On Polymarket, the odds of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting sit at 85.5%, while a 25 bps rate cut after the June 2026 meeting trades at just 3.6%.

Powell’s characterization of growth as “solid” reduces the case for rate cuts and both the Fed Decision June market and Fed Decision July market reflect that. The July no-change contract at 85.5% and the June cut contract at 3.6% show traders pricing in a Fed that stays put. Combined volume across these markets is $506,803 in actual USDC traded.

The 85.5% odds on no July rate change tell a specific story: traders believe the Iran war energy shock has been less damaging to the US economy than feared, and that Powell’s assessment of consumer spending and data center investment strength is accurate. A Fed that sees “solid” growth has little reason to ease.

At 3.6¢, a YES share on a June 2026 rate cut pays $1 if it resolves, a 27.8x return. That payout is large, but Powell’s confidence in the current growth trajectory makes it a long-odds bet unless incoming economic data deteriorates sharply.

Watch for upcoming FOMC communications and any shift in Powell’s tone. His “solid pace” language points hawkish, but an escalation in the Iran conflict or a sudden weakening in consumer spending or investment data could move these contracts.

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