Ripple’s XRP could be in for a noteworthy rally in the near future based on derivatives data, major crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant reports. The 4th-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been reeling from a major downturn for the better part of the last 6-7 months, with no major respite for longs. Now, the situation may be about to change.
CryptoQuant tweeted:
The CryptoQuant analysis points to the widening divergence between XRP’s price and its estimated leverage ratio on cryptocurrency exchange Binance. The analyst marked the market as calm yet building “potential energy” that could unleash a rapid, squeeze-driven move.
The metric used in this analysis is the Estimated Leverage Ratio, calculated as open interest divided by the exchange’s coin reserves. It measures the average leverage used by traders compared to any exchange’s reserves, in this case, Binance. Higher values generally suggest that leverage traders are engaged in speculative borrowing.
The CryptoQuant analyst states that the ELR value plunged in the last quarter of 2025 to as low as 0.13. However, after the considerable dump, the value is starting to tick upwards while the spot price remains steady between $1.3 and $1.5.
 
Major Price Swing Expected
The current diversion creates an unstable setup that often results in a major price swing. Historical patterns in crypto derivatives also suggest that such setups often resolve with sharp directional moves rather than slow and steady price movements.
Here is XRP’s price chart for the last 6 months:
The major cryptocurrency is currently trading in a narrow band between $1.3 and $1.45, and leverage diversion suggests the market is primed for a major move.
There is also a broader context that supports such a price breakout, including greater regulatory clarity following the SEC resolution, ongoing developments in the Ripple ecosystem, expansion of the RLUSD stablecoin, and institutional interest through potential ETFs.
Long-term holders are also protective of their investments and unlikely to capitulate, especially at the current price point, while leverage traders are starting to bet big again. The $1.5 price resistance currently stands in the way of a short-term and any bull move will have to negotiate with it.
However, cryptocurrencies are known for their unpredictable, volatile nature. XRP is no exception. A broader risk-skeptic environment or delayed catalysts could extend sideways action. While rising ELR ratios do reduce the risk of a major downside, there is always the possibility that the market doesn’t respond in a way that satisfies the bulls.
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