More important than the recent price increase is the fact that Dogecoin is subtly approaching a point where long-term bag holders are no longer underwater.
The chart’s structure now depicts a shift from compression to early expansion, following a year of decline, with price moving into the $0.10-$0.11 range after months of sideways grinding. Technically speaking, DOGE built a base above an increasing support trendline for the majority of the last quarter.
Higher lows and the tightening range are reflecting the stage of accumulation for DOGE. A recent attempt to break out above short-term resistance coincides with an increase in volume, indicating that participation is at last coming back. Additionally, RSI is moving into bullish territory, indicating that momentum is increasing rather than merely drifting.
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The larger trend hasn’t completely reversed, though. The 100 EMA, which has served as dynamic resistance during the downtrend, is currently being tested by the price. The move is still a recovery rally rather than a confirmed reversal until DOGE can firmly clear and hold above this level. The fact that the 200 EMA is much higher supports the idea that macro pressure is still present.
The on-chain context is an additional layer. After a year of inactivity, a group of wallets that amassed 14.06 million DOGE at an average price of $0.382 between late 2024 and mid-2025 have now transferred funds. Once valued at approximately $5.37 million, those holdings have effectively decreased by $3.87 million.
In nominal terms, that isn’t break-even, but psychologically, price recovery toward important zones frequently causes long-inactive holders to move. Overhead supply is usually introduced by this type of behavior. The awakening of dormant wallets typically indicates distribution rather than accumulation. Uncertainty is increased by the fact that these funds were moved to new unidentified addresses; this could be repositioning or selling preparation.
Consequently, the chart presents a more complex picture than the popular narrative of breaking even. Although DOGE is stabilizing and exhibiting early bullish signals, it is moving into an area where trapped liquidity might begin to move out. It becomes feasible for buyers to continue toward $0.12-$0.14 if they are able to push and hold above the 100 EMA. If not, DOGE will probably return to the $0.095 support range if this is rejected.
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