What’s Next for BTC as Key Trendline Breaks?

Bitcoin is trading at $76.8k as the third week of May opens. It has surrendered the $80k breakout that defined the prior week’s narrative. The short-term bullish trendline that supported the inner rally structure has been broken, and the price has pulled back into the mid-range of the large ascending channel on the daily timeframe. The support zone at $75k is now the line in the sand.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, it is evident that the ascending channel breakout has been invalidated, and the asset has returned inside the structure and is now testing the middle portion of the range near $76k–$75k. The 100-day MA has declined to approximately $72k and is approaching from below, providing a rising floor that narrows the downside risk. Yet, the 200-day MA, currently located around $81k, is pushing the price lower from above, after rejecting it decisively.

The support zone at $75k is the critical area to defend, as it represents the most recent bullish order block and short-term swing low. A rebound here and a recovery back above $80k would suggest the pullback was corrective and the broader uptrend intact.

However, if the price breaks below $75k, a further decline back toward the 100-day MA and the $72k demand area would be expected. Such a move would raise questions on whether the recent recovery has been a genuine one or simply another trap for early buyers.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The bearish RSI divergence that built through the $80k–82k highs earlier this month has resolved exactly as the pattern suggested. The inner bullish trendline from April has been broken, and the RSI has dropped sharply below 35, approaching oversold on this timeframe for the first time in the past couple of months.

The price is now sitting at the upper edge of the $75k–$76k support zone. A bounce from here, accompanied by a bullish RSI divergence and recovery from oversold values, would signal that the correction is exhausted and another rally toward $80k could be expected.

On the other hand, failure to hold $75k opens the lower support area at $70k–72k, which also aligns with the daily ascending channel’s lower boundary and the 100-day moving average. Therefore, if the $75k zone breaks, buyers would face a critical battle at the $72k region to prevent the market from a deeper crash.

On-Chain Analysis

The Adjusted SOPR has recovered from its February low of below 0.98, which is a reading that confirmed widespread capitulation as sellers offloaded coins below their cost basis, all the way back to 1.005. The metric has just crossed the critical 1.0 threshold that separates profitable from loss-realizing behavior. Historically, the recrossing of 1.0 from below has marked the transition from bear-market behavior to recovery.

The fragility of the current reading matters, though. At 1.005, aSOPR has barely cleared the line, and any meaningful price decline back toward $70–72k risks pushing it below 1.0 again, which would signal that the recovery has stalled and sellers are once again realizing losses. Holding the $75k support zone is therefore not just a technical requirement but an on-chain one, as it is the price level that keeps the aSOPR above 1.0 and the recovery narrative intact.