Polymarket, Nasdaq team up on private-company prediction markets

Polymarket has struck a deal with Nasdaq’s private-markets arm to launch prediction markets tied to private-company valuations, IPO timing and secondary trading, opening a new way for retail and institutions to bet on and benchmark unicorns before they list.

According to Reuters, New York-based Polymarket has partnered with Nasdaq Private Market to debut the “first prediction markets tied to private company performance and milestones.” The new markets allow traders to buy and sell outcome shares based on whether a private firm hits specific valuation thresholds, when it goes public, or how its secondary-market pricing evolves over time. Polymarket says the collaboration is designed to give individuals exposure to “some of the most sought-after private companies for the first time,” while giving institutional investors a new real-time signal on how private valuations are moving.

How the Polymarket–Nasdaq tie-up works

In a press release, Polymarket said that under an “exclusive agreement,” Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) will serve as the “resolution data provider” for these new markets, supplying verified data on private-company primary and secondary transactions. “By pairing Polymarket’s prediction market infrastructure with Nasdaq Private Market’s authoritative data on primary and secondary market activity, the new offering gives individuals a transparent way to engage with verifiable private company events,” the companies said. Those events include “valuation milestones, IPO timing and secondary market activity,” with NPM’s transaction-based pricing becoming the anchor for settling markets once outcomes are known.

Rodolfo Sanchez, vice president of data at Nasdaq Private Market, described the relationship as two-way: “The data flows in both directions,” he said. “We anchor every market with institutional-quality data on the underlying companies, and the activity in those markets becomes a real-time signal that institutional investors can use on private company performance reflected back through a much broader market.” That feedback loop effectively turns Polymarket order flow into another price-discovery tool for institutions already relying on NPM’s secondary pricing, a role prediction markets have increasingly played across politics, macro and crypto, as documented in a recent crypto.news story.

Private markets meet the “wisdom of the crowd”

Polymarket markets itself as the world’s largest prediction platform, with users trading on real-world outcomes ranging from elections and Federal Reserve decisions to crypto prices, sports and tech launches. Prices on the platform are quoted between 0 and 100 cents and represent the implied probability of an event occurring, backed by real money and often front-run by sophisticated traders and AI bots. As crypto.news reported in April, monthly prediction-market volume has surged to roughly $23.9 billion, with about 191 million transactions in March alone, a 2,800% year-on-year jump as Wall Street capital and looser U.S. rules pushed the sector into the financial mainstream.

The Nasdaq Private Market deal also lands as Polymarket itself becomes a marquee private asset. Reuters recently reported the company is in talks to raise around $400 million at a roughly $15 billion valuation, after Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion in the platform at an $8 billion pre-money valuation in 2025. Those moves mirror a broader institutionalization of prediction markets that has included an exclusive data deal with Dow Jones and comes amid a wave of regulatory engagement in the U.S., areas crypto.news has tracked in other stories.

For private markets, the partnership pushes the line between traditional, opaque valuation processes and crowd-driven expectations. If traders consistently price private IPO timing or valuation paths differently from internal marks and secondary trades, the resulting gap could give investors, founders and employees a new benchmark—one rooted in the same “wisdom of the crowd” dynamic that now shapes everything from U.S. election odds to live Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) probabilities on Polymarket and rival platforms.