- Bitcoin traded near US$77,400 after recently dropping toward US$76,000 and triggering more than US$600 million in realised losses.
- Glassnode said spot accumulation has not returned, with negative spot CVD and weaker US institutional activity.
- Futures positioning and positive funding rates showed leveraged longs remained active while spot demand softened.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded near US$77,400 (AU$107K) on May 21 as on-chain data showed large holders and recent buyers selling into weakness, with realised losses rising above US$600 million (AU$834 million) after the latest slide toward US$76,000 (AU$105K).
The realised-loss spike was the highest single-day loss realisation since March and compared with US$41.5 million (AU$57.7 million) two days earlier, according to source data mirrored from the brief. It signals that investors who bought higher are now closing positions at a loss rather than continuing to accumulate.
Glassnode’s latest Week On-chain report reached the same broad conclusion from a different angle. Bitcoin reclaimed the True Market Mean near US$78,300 (AU$108,800) during the rebound but failed to hold it, while the 30-day cost basis at US$78,200 (AU$108,700) flipped from support into overhead resistance.
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Distribution Replaces Accumulation
Glassnode said the February-to-April accumulation cohort now has a cost basis near US$71,400 (AU$99,200), making that level the nearest support floor if the pullback deepens. The firm said weeks or months of consolidation around the True Market Mean are usually needed before a credible transition from bear to bull conditions can be confirmed.
Moreover, the 30-day average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio rose from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rally, but a sustained move above 2 would be needed to show buy-side conviction has recovered enough to absorb distribution.
In general, distribution remains a structural headwind, but that does not prove large holders are exiting permanently, though it shows the market has shifted from broad accumulation toward selling across important investor cohorts.
Retail dip-buying alone rarely absorbs sustained whale distribution. Without larger spot buyers returning, realised losses can keep climbing as recent entrants sell into every failed rebound.
Finally, Glassnode said aggregate spot CVD remained negative into the pullback, while Coinbase activity lagged, pointing to softer US institutional spot participation even as offshore speculative activity showed periodic strength.
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