TL;DR:
- Glassnode’s Exchange Net Position Change indicator shifted from -7.14 million XRP on May 15 to -29.37 million XRP on May 24.
- Open interest in derivatives tied to the token decreased from $1 billion to $914.19 million over the same nine-day period.
- The total funding rate for long positions in the futures market dropped from 0.008% to 0.003%.
An intense tug-of-war is brewing around Ripple’s token. On Monday, XRP withdrawals spiked sharply from exchanges to cold wallets, a behavior that coincides with a severe bearish technical formation on high-timeframe charts that keeps traders on edge.
The head and shoulders pattern threatens the one-dollar support
The asset’s 12-hour chart draws the popular technical structure known as a head and shoulders. The left shoulder began developing in early March, while the peak of the head was established in the middle of the same month, leaving the right shoulder completed during mid-May.
Technical analysts in the sector indicate that the neckline of this formation sits around $1.18. The data suggests that a definitive break below this technical level would validate a projected drop estimated at 18%, which would drag the price below the psychological barrier of the one-dollar unit.
On May 23, the price momentarily dropped to $1.30, just before experiencing an immediate rebound. Market assessments indicate that the bearish risk will remain active in the medium term unless the price manages to reclaim and consolidate firm positions above the local highs set at the head of the structure.
Glassnode data exposes massive accumulation off exchanges
The selling pressure implied in the charts faces strong resistance coming from on-chain metrics. The Exchange Net Position Change tool by analytical firm Glassnode, responsible for monitoring net exchange flows, revealed a sustained acceleration in fund withdrawals since mid-may.
The platform’s official record marked a net outflow of -7,144,942 XRP on May 15. By May 24, the negative flow deepened to reach -29,372,431 XRP, consolidating an increase of over 300% in the flight of tokens toward personal custody within a nine-day span.
Net transfers moving out of exchanges are usually interpreted as a deliberate accumulation campaign. By moving assets away from exchanges, the immediately available supply for sale in the spot market is reduced, which could cushion mass liquidation scenarios.
Leverage cools down in derivatives markets
The trading landscape in futures and options supports the hypothesis of a period of sideways stagnation for the crypto asset. Metrics provided by analytical firm Santiment detail that XRP’s open interest pulled back from an initial $1 billion to settle at $914.19 million over the last week.
This contraction in open interest was complemented by a downward adjustment in funding rates for long positions, which went from 0.008% to a moderate 0.003%. This decline directly reduces the probability of a cascading event of forced liquidations, stripping away fuel for a vertical price crash.
At the close of this publication, the token trades around the $1.34 zone during the session of May 25, 2026. A continuous pullback below $1.34 and $1.28 would increase the risk of testing lower support zones, with the main bearish targets delimited at the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $1.01 and $0.96 if a 12-hour candle close is consolidated below the neckline. Conversely, a consistent return above the $1.55 resistance would invalidate the current bearish formation.
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