Nvidia (NVDA) Stock and Micron (MU) Could Drive One-Third of S&P 500 Earnings Growth

TLDR

• Goldman Sachs says Nvidia and Micron could together account for roughly one-third of all S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026.
• AI infrastructure beneficiaries broadly are expected to drive nearly half of S&P 500 EPS growth in both 2026 and 2027.
• Nvidia benefits from AI accelerator demand; Micron is tied to the memory requirements of larger AI models and data centers.
• Goldman flagged rising depreciation costs from heavy hyperscaler spending as a partial offset to earnings growth, particularly in 2027.
• Wall Street analysts see 45.4% upside in NVDA to a price target of $306.46, while MU faces a projected 21.6% downside.

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Goldman Sachs has put two chip names at the center of the S&P 500 earnings story for 2026, and the numbers are hard to ignore.

Nvidia and Micron together are expected to generate roughly one-third of the entire S&P 500’s earnings growth this year, according to a Goldman Sachs forecast released on May 27.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

That’s a striking concentration of profit power in just two companies.

Goldman’s broader view is that AI infrastructure beneficiaries as a group will account for nearly half of S&P 500 EPS growth in both 2026 and 2027. That includes not just chipmakers, but also tech hardware firms, industrials, and utilities riding the data center build-out.

NVDA stock was down 1.14% on the day, while MU was up 1.25%.

Nvidia’s role in the story is straightforward. Demand for AI accelerators — the GPUs that power model training and inference — has been relentless. The company has become the default pick for anyone building out AI infrastructure.

Micron’s position is less discussed but equally important. As AI models grow larger and data center workloads increase, the need for high-bandwidth memory rises with them. That’s Micron’s lane.

Goldman’s report notes the impact is spreading beyond semiconductors. Power companies and industrial names tied to data center construction are also pulling in earnings gains as the infrastructure wave rolls through the economy.

Risks Goldman Flagged

It’s not all upside. Goldman specifically warned that hyperscalers — the big cloud platforms — are pouring money into AI infrastructure, and those costs don’t disappear. Depreciation on all that spending will start to weigh on earnings, particularly heading into 2027.

That’s a real caveat. Heavy capital expenditure now creates an accounting drag later, which could chip away at some of the earnings boost Goldman is projecting.

The insider activity at Nvidia is also worth noting. Over the past three months, insiders sold $163.7 million worth of stock with no buying reported. That’s not necessarily a red flag on its own, but it’s a data point worth keeping in mind.

What Wall Street Thinks

When it comes to which stock analysts prefer, the gap is wide.

NVDA carries an average Wall Street price target of $306.46, implying 45.4% upside from current levels. Micron’s consensus target, by contrast, points to 21.6% downside.

Nvidia’s GF Score sits at 96 out of 100, with perfect 10/10 ratings for both profitability and growth. Its P/E ratio is currently 32.17x, which reflects a premium the market has been willing to pay given its earnings trajectory.

Goldman Sachs’ broader AI infrastructure thesis extends well beyond these two names, but Nvidia and Micron are the clearest expression of it in the semiconductor space.