Wolfe Research Just Named Its Top AI Stock: AMD, Intel, Nvidia, or Arm?

TLDR

• Wolfe Research projects agentic and orchestration CPUs will drive ~30% growth in the CPU market through 2028
• AMD is named the biggest winner relative to size and valuation, with server CPU revenue forecast to hit $44 billion by 2028
• ARM-based CPUs expected to capture 50–75% of the agentic CPU market
• Intel faces market share losses in orchestration and agentic CPU despite revenue growth
• Nvidia expected to ship over 4 million CPUs this year, but CPUs remain a small part of its business

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Wolfe Research has published a new forecast saying that the rise of agentic AI will push CPU market growth by around 30% through calendar year 2028. The firm says newer AI systems need far more CPUs alongside GPUs to coordinate tasks, manage memory, and handle complex workloads.

The research firm also flagged that tight manufacturing capacity at TSMC could end up deciding market share more than raw chip performance over the next few years.

Why Wolfe Picks AMD as the Biggest Winner

Wolfe Research says Advanced Micro Devices stands to gain the most relative to its size and current stock valuation. The firm projects server CPU revenue for the company could climb to $44 billion by 2028, up from $17 billion in 2026.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD

Wolfe also estimates the AI-driven CPU opportunity could add around $7 in incremental earnings per share compared to 2025. That would push AMD’s total earnings power to between $25 and $30 per share by 2028.

The firm points to ARM-based chip designs as key to this growth. It expects ARM-based CPUs to take between 50% and 75% of the agentic AI CPU market, citing better performance per watt and stronger multi-threaded capability compared to traditional x86 chips.

Intel Grows Revenue But Loses Ground

Intel is expected to see server CPU revenue rise to $41.5 billion by 2028, up from $22.6 billion in 2026. Wolfe estimates that could add around $1 in incremental earnings per share versus 2025.

However, the firm also forecasts Intel will continue losing market share. Google is shifting to its own Axion chip for orchestration workloads, which directly cuts into Intel’s position.

Intel faces pressure in both the traditional and agentic CPU segments, even as the overall market expands around it.

Nvidia and Arm Also Set to Benefit

Wolfe expects Nvidia to ship more than 4 million CPUs this year. Around 1.3 million of those will be Vera agentic CPUs, mostly shipping in the fourth quarter. Agentic CPU revenue is forecast to grow from $6.6 billion in 2026 to $24.6 billion in 2028.

Despite that growth, Wolfe notes that CPUs will remain a much smaller business compared to Nvidia’s AI accelerator segment. The EPS impact from CPUs is expected to be just $0.50 incremental versus 2025.

Arm Holdings is set to benefit through royalty revenue and its own chip sales. Wolfe models $1.5 billion in royalty revenue for 2027, rising to $2.5 billion in 2028. The firm also forecasts $2 billion in ARM silicon revenue in 2028, driving around $4.50 in earnings power by that year. Wolfe flags that current ARM valuations already look expensive.

The broader CPU expansion is also expected to drive around 20% wafer growth over two years, though GPUs and XPUs remain the primary drivers of demand at the leading edge.