XRP May Have Completed Its Search for a Bottom

XRP holds near $1.33 as exchange supply falls and NVT drops 23%, pointing to a possible bottoming process on-chain.

The sharp moves are gone. XRP is sitting near $1.33, trading inside a tight band that has barely shifted in weeks. The volatility that defined the token through late 2025 and early 2026 has flattened. What’s left is a chart that looks, depending on who reads it, like either exhaustion or preparation.

CryptoQuant analyst published a fresh look at the XRP market structure this week, tracking four metrics in parallel: price, the Exchange Supply Ratio on Binance, the NVT Ratio, and the Awesome Oscillator. The read across all four pointed the same direction.

Exchange Wallets Are Getting Lighter

The Exchange Supply Ratio peaked somewhere in March and April. Since then it has been sliding. Per the CryptoQuant analysis, coins are leaving Binance and moving into private wallets. That shift matters because exchange-held supply is the pool that sellers draw from.

Less XRP sitting on exchange means the immediate supply available for selling shrinks. It does not guarantee a rally. But historically, that kind of withdrawal pattern tends to precede periods where downside pressure becomes harder to sustain.

The NVT Ratio, meanwhile, fell 23.73% to 151.53. Network Value to Transactions is a valuation tool. A lower reading means on-chain transfer volume is large relative to market cap. The asset, by that measure, is not overpriced for the amount of actual activity running through it.

Source: CryptoQuant

The Oscillator Reads Like a Market That Cannot Decide

The Awesome Oscillator is just below zero. The bars are small. Neither side has momentum. The CryptoQuant note described this as the $1.33 area becoming an equilibrium zone, a spot where buyers and sellers keep meeting without anyone winning the argument.

That kind of neutral reading is uncomfortable to trade but it tells its own story. Big trending moves carry momentum behind them. What the AO shows here is a market where the selling force has mostly run out, and buying has not gathered speed yet either.

The token hit an all-time high of $3.65 back in July 2025. It has given back the larger part of that move. A multi-month symmetrical triangle had been pressing toward its apex through May, per separate technical commentary earlier this month.

What the Data Suggests, Not Guarantees

The CryptoQuant analysis stopped short of calling a reversal. The conclusion was that XRP may have already completed its bottoming process, or is close to doing so. The distinction is deliberate. Proximity to a bottom is not the same thing as a bottom confirmed.

Three of the four indicators point toward easing downside pressure. The declining exchange supply, the lower NVT, and the flat AO all read the same way. The price has not broken higher. That is the gap between what the data shows and what the market has done.