The Onchain Line Behind Every Bitcoin Bottom Sits Near 40%, Short of ‘Maximum Opportunity’

A Line That Keeps Marking Bottoms

MorenoDV pointed to an onchain stress measure that he says has lined up with every major bitcoin bottom for over a decade. The indicator tracks how much financial stress the market is absorbing, and historically it has reached extremes at the exact moments when bitcoin carved out its cycle lows.

Cryptoquant’s contributors have become a regular reference point for traders trying to time the market’s turning points, and MorenoDV’s bottom indicator is among the metrics that draw the most attention during drawdowns. However, the current message is nuanced rather than a clean buy signal

The view lines up with other work from the firm on the same theme as other Cryptoquant analysts have noted that bitcoin’s short-term risk-adjusted returns recently fell to a four-year low, with a related stress reading near the cycle lows seen at the end of 2015, 2019, and 2022. Each of those troughs preceded a powerful recovery, which is why the metric is watched so closely.

Still, history is a guide, not a guarantee and that backdrop could explain where the stress is coming from. Bitcoin opened June below $70,000 after sealing its third red monthly candle of 2026, and U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) shed about $2.43 billion in May, the largest monthly outflow of the year. Those redemptions drained a key source of demand and added to the pressure the indicator is now registering.

A Divided Cryptoquant Desk

MorenoDV’s measured take sits within a wider, and not always consistent, debate among Cryptoquant analysts. Firm founder Ki Young Ju recently warned that bitcoin’s bear market could run into early 2027, arguing that once profit-taking cascades, investor profit and loss typically deteriorates for about 18 months before the trend resets.

Other notes from the firm have struck a similar caution, warning at points that the bear market bottom is not yet in. Yet the same desk has also flagged signs of seller fatigue that can precede a price bottom, and its bull-bear cycle indicator has flipped bullish at times this year, muddying the picture.

For now, the data says the market is in a high-stress phase that has historically rewarded patience over urgency. The next signal MorenoDV is waiting for is confirmation that selling has exhausted, the point at which past readings pushed into the “maximum opportunity” zone and bitcoin bottoms became visible only after the fact.