TLDR
- DOJ and CFTC investigators are reviewing Santos trades tied to State of the Union attendance.
- Kalshi reportedly flagged the account after detecting trades connected to his publicly disputed plans online.
- NPR said Santos allegedly profited by betting against attendance he had promoted on X earlier.
- The case adds scrutiny to event markets facing questions about participant knowledge and controls procedures.
- Santos said the report was news to him while avoiding confirmation of any account ownership.
The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are examining former U.S. Rep. George Santos over Kalshi trades linked to his expected attendance at President Trump’s February State of the Union address, according to NPR.
The report said Kalshi detected activity tied to Santos, froze the account, and referred the matter to federal authorities for review. Investigators are reportedly assessing whether the trades involved improper use of personal knowledge about his own plans.
NPR reported that Santos allegedly made tens of thousands of dollars by betting that he would not attend the address after publicly suggesting on X that he planned to be present. Santos later posted from an airport while the speech was taking place, after which market odds on his attendance reportedly fell.
DOJ probing George Santos over insider trading after ex-rep’s alleged Kalshi bets on his own appearance at Trump address: report https://t.co/dr6OttwPcP pic.twitter.com/rcZKVzsko6
— New York Post (@nypost) June 2, 2026
Attendance market draws examination
The reported trades centered on a prediction market contract tied to whether Santos would appear at the State of the Union address. Such markets allow participants to trade based on event outcomes, although operators face pressure to detect trades made by people directly involved in those outcomes.
Kalshi has sought to interview Santos as part of its internal review, NPR reported, citing a person familiar with the matter. That person said Santos had not accepted those requests, while Santos told NPR that the reported investigation was “news to me.”
Asked by NPR whether he had a Kalshi account, Santos did not confirm or deny the matter. He also criticized the reporting in a post on X, where he described his activities as continuing as usual.
Prediction markets face wider checks
The Santos matter comes as prediction markets face closer attention from regulators and lawmakers over controls against insider trading and market abuse. Kalshi and Polymarket have both drawn questions about whether people with direct knowledge of event outcomes can profit from that access.
In April, federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier over Polymarket bets tied to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Other reports have described enforcement concerns involving trades tied to search trends and political race markets.
Kalshi has introduced tools intended to screen participants from trading on events in which they are directly involved, while Polymarket has updated market rules and expanded surveillance standards. The platforms remain major prediction market operators, with The Block reporting that Kalshi recorded about $16.8 billion in May volume, compared with about $7 billion for Polymarket.
Be the first to comment