What to know:
- Altcoin dominance just fired its fourth-ever MACD crossover signal, mirroring 2017, 2020, and 2023 rallies.
- Trading volumes on Binance have collapsed from $50 billion peaks to just $7.7 billion, signaling low participation.
- Analysts say reduced retail activity may mark early smart money accumulation before an altseason breakout.
Altcoin dominance is producing its fourth-ever MACD crossover, with the latest signal appearing on March 20, 2026. The signal comes as these coins continue to lag Bitcoin and trading activity drops sharply. This signal is also an early-stage indicator for an upcoming cycle for this sector of the crypto market.
The Altcoin MACD Crossover
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader stated this is the fourth time in crypto history that a MACD crossover has occurred. The other three crossovers produced significant rallies in these coins.
The first crossover was at day 333 of the 2017 cycle and resulted in one of the biggest altseasons ever. The second was on day 590 of the 2020 cycle. This crossover produced a large increase in the prices of the top altcoins.
The third crossover was at day 561 of the 2023 cycle. This led to a strong expansion of the altcoin market. The current crossover has occurred at about day 462 of the current cycle. Its timing matches the prior cycles’ altseason formation phases.
However, the confirmation of this year’s altseason will depend upon how long the alternative cryptocurrencies can remain above key dominance levels.
Also Read | South Korea Crypto Trading Jumps, XRP Dominates as 14 Altcoins Climb
Altcoin Dominance Must Hold Key Levels
Merlijn further stated that holding the 7% dominance level would confirm that capital is being rotated from Bitcoin into the alternative crypto assets. Breaking through that level would produce a weaker MACD crossover signal.
Therefore, a failure to hold the 7% dominance level would create a delayed confirmation of a larger trend in altcoins.
A Dramatic Drop in Trading Volume
Darkfost, a CryptoQuant analyst, indicated there has been a dramatic drop-off in altcoin trading activity. Currently, Binance reports around $7.7 billion in trading activity in this crypto market sector.
The total volume across all exchanges is roughly $26.5 billion. These numbers are significantly down from previous cycle highs. In October and February 2025, Binance reported trading activity ranging from $40 billion to $50 billion.
During the same timeframe, many other crypto exchanges reported altcoin trading activity ranging from $63 billion to $91 billion.
Thus, the data also showed that the participation of traders in the altcoin space has declined dramatically. These coins have continued to fall short of Bitcoin as investors have flocked to the top-cap crypto asset.
Geopolitical concerns, along with macroeconomic uncertainty, have further decreased investor appetites for risk assets. As a result, investors have reduced their capital allocations to alternative crypto assets over the last few months.
Smart Money Positioning Is Evident In Market Structure
Darkfost said that previous volume spikes were associated with local market tops. Such spikes were caused primarily by retail demand and Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) behavior.
Retail investors buy aggressively. When they do, smart money uses that buying demand as exit liquidity. Historically, smart money positioning indicates the market is less speculative.
The best investment opportunities occur when investor interest is low. Low investor interest is often indicative of early-accumulation phases of a new altcoin cycle.
Exchange Distributions Indicate Highest Concentration On Binance
The data from CryptoQuant reveals that Binance accounts for almost 40% of all altcoin trading volume. Other exchanges, such as MEXC, Bybit, and OKX, each account for a much smaller share.
The high concentration of altcoin trading activity at Binance increases the potential for price swings resulting from a rapid shift in investor sentiment.
Why This Is Important
A low number of participants along with a bullish indicator could be evidence that smart money is buying at the beginning of an altseason ahead of the bigger altcoin rally.
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
Also Read | Altcoins May Outperform Bitcoin Like 2017 and 2021
Be the first to comment