Bitcoin might rally to $300,000, according to one analyst, who also warned that a major crash must occur before that surge. The forecast comes amid bearish sentiment gripping the market, with BTC crashing 7% over the last month. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $72,050 with a slight 0.14% intraday drop.
Analyst Forecasts a Bitcoin Price Drop Before Massive Rally
In an X post, analyst Crypto Patel noted that some traders are still waiting for Bitcoin to hit its $300,000 target. However, he warned that any rally will have to be preceded by a massive price decline.
“If you’re targeting $300K Bitcoin, You Should Also Be Prepared For A Drop To $30K-$40K. History Repeats: Every Cycle Has Seen 70-85% Corrections Before The Next ATH,” he said.
The analyst went back in time and identified patterns in BTC price where the price crashed first before a bullish leg started. In 2018, the price crashed from around $19,000 to $3,122. The same trend happened again in 2022, when the price dropped from $69,000 to $15,479.
The analysis was based on a rising wedge pattern, suggesting that Bitcoin is undergoing a bearish reversal, with the corrections indicating price testing of the lower boundary support. For the price to continue its upward trajectory, Patel notes it may drop to around $32,000 before recovery.
 
Analyst PlanB also supported the thesis that the price will likely continue to drop before gains are seen. He expects the price to drop below the 200-week moving average at $59,000 before the next leg up to the $250,000-$1 million range.
Bitcoin Losses Spike as Retail Interest Drops
Retail interest in Bitcoin has declined significantly in recent months as the price continues to fall amid divergent price forecasts. Data from Google Trends shows that this interest is at the lowest level in years, leading to weak price movements as retail traders shy away from the market.
The reduced interest coincides with massive losses, with data from Glassnode showing that sharks and whales are heavily underwater. According to on-chain data, wallets holding between 0.1K and 10K Bitcoin are realizing significant losses, with the 7-day SMA of realized losses exceeding $200 million per day.
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