APT Tests $1.13 With Active Addresses

• Aptos trades at $1.0575, down 1.08%, pressing against the Keltner upper band at $1.1283 after a macro-driven rally yesterday.
• Open interest jumps 22.82% to $128.13M while volume surges 170.53% to $459.90M on the back of Trump’s Iran strike pause.
• Active addresses on Aptos recovered to 828K on the 7DMA after collapsing near zero in mid-February, per The Block data.

Aptos caught yesterday’s broad crypto rally after Trump announced a five-day pause on planned Iran strikes. Bitcoin pushed back above $71,000, short liquidations ran into the hundreds of millions across the market, and liquid layer-1s like APT moved as high-beta expressions of the same macro relief.

Keltner Channel Squeeze At A Year-Long Low

The daily chart shows APT compressing inside the tightest Keltner Channel range it has printed since the token began trading. Upper band at $1.1283, midline at $0.9815, lower band at $0.8348. Price peaked near $4.50 in October 2025 and has spent six months grinding toward this compression zone. RSI at 57.30 is above the signal line at 48.75 and trending higher, the most constructive reading since January.

Keltner compressions this tight historically precede directional moves. The direction depends on which band price closes through on a daily basis. Above $1.13 opens the road toward $1.40 to $1.50. Below $0.98 and the lower band at $0.83 comes into view quickly.

Key levels:

• Keltner lower band: $0.8348
• Keltner midline: $0.9815
• Keltner upper band: $1.1283
• First target above: $1.40 to $1.50

Volume Triples As Open Interest Builds

Volume jumped 170.53% to $459.90M and open interest rose 22.82% to $128.13M. Rising OI alongside a price bounce is fresh positioning entering, not just existing holders reacting. The Binance long/short account ratio sits at 1.11, nearly balanced, while top trader positions are at 1.52, more meaningfully long. Shorts absorbed $621.51K in 24-hour liquidations against $428.57K for longs, a mild squeeze rather than a full washout.

The balanced account ratio is interesting. When retail is not heavily skewed long, the squeeze risk on any upside push is larger than it looks, because positions need to be built rather than unwound.

Active Addresses Recovering From February Crash

Aptos active addresses hit near-zero in mid-February, a dramatic drop that looked anomalous rather than structural. The 7DMA has since recovered to 828K as of March 22, back toward the 800K to 1M range the network has held for most of the past year. The February collapse was likely related to a specific application or bot activity disappearing rather than organic user loss, given how sharply it recovered.

Still, 828K is well below the 1.5M peak from November 2025. For APT to sustain a price recovery beyond a macro bounce, on-chain activity needs to keep rebuilding toward those levels. Price and user growth diverged sharply during the January selloff. Reconnecting them is what a genuine recovery looks like.

Outlook: APT Price

• Bullish case: APT closes above the Keltner upper band at $1.1283 on a daily basis, RSI holds above 50, and the Iran pause extends reducing macro headwinds. Active addresses continuing toward 1M would give the technical breakout fundamental backing. Target $1.40 to $1.50.
• Bearish case: Upper band rejection sends price back toward the midline at $0.9815. A break below $0.98 exposes the lower band at $0.8348. If the Iran situation re-escalates and the macro risk-off trade returns, APT as a high-beta layer-1 will feel it faster than Bitcoin.