What to know:
- Binance launches prediction markets with zero fees, targeting $20B monthly volume.
- Gasless BNB Chain integration via Predict.fun enables seamless in-app trading.
- The sector grows 20x as lawsuits rise and the CFTC asserts control over markets.
Binance has launched a prediction market feature inside its wallet application, targeting a share of a fast-growing sector. The company said it will cover all trading and settlement costs as it expands into a market estimated at $20 billion in monthly volume.
In a Thursday notice, Binance confirmed the rollout of probability-based markets through integrations with third-party platforms. The feature will begin with Predict.fun. Users will be able to take positions on event outcomes directly within the wallet interface without switching platforms.
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Prediction Markets Face US Legal Pressure
Any transaction related to the feature will run on the BNB Smart Chain. Binance said that the integration process would be gasless because the company would cover all network fees. Such an arrangement would make the process easier for users by removing any barriers related to costs.
Prediction market platforms enable the trading of bets regarding real-world events like politics, sports, and global news. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have grown quickly due to increased interest in event betting.
However, the prediction markets are also struggling with legal concerns in the United States. The companies are involved in lawsuits with several states regarding contract violations. Some contracts could be against state laws concerning gambling activities.
Binance’s decision is indicative of the overall trend in crypto companies venturing into prediction markets. However, some contracts offered on these platforms have been the subject of controversy. For example, Polymarket offers contracts based on events related to attacks by the U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran.
Rapid Prediction Market Growth Meets Scrutiny
Data shows a quick growth within the industry. TRM Labs reveals that monthly transaction volumes in prediction market platforms amounted to $20 billion in January. It amounts to a twenty-fold rise since early 2025.
There have also been conflicting opinions regarding regulation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission asserts its sole authority in regulating prediction markets. This stance has created conflict with state-level actions.
The matter has drawn attention to the influence of politics in these ventures. In a discussion with Axios, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and co-founder Luana Lopes Lara responded to queries regarding Donald Trump Jr. holding a strategic advisory position. They claimed no favor sought from any regulatory body.
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