Bitcoin Clears Key Supply Wall, But Weak Conviction Clouds Bull Market Outlook

Bitcoin’s push to $74,000 demonstrated strength, but heavy profit-taking and low futures activity suggest the rally may lack long-term sustainability.

Bitcoin has broken above the upper boundary of its February-March trading range after climbing past $70,000 to touch $74,000 briefly.

On-chain data indicates that the asset has moved beyond a dense accumulation cluster formed between $59,000 and $72,000. However, it has recently returned below the upper boundary, even though the daily closure is not here yet.

Is $82K Next?

According to the latest findings by Glassnode, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows that this zone contained a significant share of recently acquired supply, and its clearance has pushed Bitcoin into a relatively thin liquidity region between $72,000 and $82,000, where limited prior accumulation suggests reduced resistance in the near term. While the recent breakout defines the most probable short-term range, broader market indicators reveal that the move has yet to confirm a structural shift.

The Percent of Supply in Profit metric has risen to roughly 60%, which is consistent with early recovery phases seen in prior cycles but is still below the long-term average near 75% that typically points to stronger bull market conditions. At the same time, high short-term holders realized profits, which recently reached $18.4 million per hour, indicating ongoing sell-side pressure that the market must absorb to sustain higher levels.

Glassnode explained that maintaining a price above $70,000 while digesting this profit-taking would strengthen the likelihood of further gains toward levels such as the True Market Mean near $78,000 and the upper end of the current range around $82,000.

Additionally, off-chain data reflects improving demand conditions. For instance, US spot Bitcoin ETF allocations rebounded after a period of outflows amid renewed institutional participation. However, CME futures open interest remains low, which means that the current price advance is driven more by spot demand than leveraged positioning. This trend has historically been associated with more stable market conditions, though a steady uptrend typically requires expansion in both capital inflows and derivatives exposure.

Strengthening buyer activity was evidenced by spot market indicators, as cumulative volume delta across major exchanges has flipped from persistent sell-side pressure to net buying, with Coinbase flows stabilizing and trending higher.

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Persistent Bearish Bets

In derivatives markets, negative perpetual funding rates point to a concentration of short positions, which has contributed to the recent rally through short covering. Options data further indicates a transition toward a more balanced structure, as implied volatility declined, which ended up easing demand for downside protection and a gradual increase in call buying.

Meanwhile, concentrated negative gamma exposure around the $75,000 level may continue to influence price action in the near term and potentially amplify upward moves through dealer hedging flows. Glassnode added,

“This positioning backdrop suggests further upside may be supported in the near term, though a sustained trend will likely require continued capital inflows and a broader expansion in leverage and conviction.”