Current market trends show that XRP is deep in the red. According to Glassnode, 36.8 billion XRP, equivalent to $50 billion, is held at unrealized loss. This is a cycle high for the Supply-in-Loss metric. Some say it could be capitulation, investors finally giving up. Others wonder whether another leg down is on the way.
How Did XRP Step Back From Its Peak
XRP’s price has fallen hard since its October 2025 peak, following Bitcoin’s crash, which dragged the entire market down. The broader crypto market is now 46% down from its peak market cap of $4.38 trillion. Macro conditions are further fueling XRP’s drawdown.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a direct consequence of the war in Iran, has spiked oil prices to $115 per barrel, rattling all risk assets, including XRP.
Ripple’s internal wallet transfer of $200 million on March 9 is another bearish catalyst, fueling sell-off speculation, or, as pundit Xaif Crypto suggests, a prelude to a major operational move.
XRP is left with no stable ground. Holders are living in fear and not rushing to buy amid any short-term price recovery.
 
The Big Question: Capitulation or Another Leg Down?
The present scenario gives rise to two possibilities: capitulation or another leg down.
Historically, XRP’s Supply in loss cycles has marked bottoms. Today’s $50 billion underwater supply has historically signaled the same, especially since the price is not moving any further down. Sellers are holding. Deeply negative funding rates mean that just a few buyers stepping in could trigger a short squeeze. A bounce looks likely, as the broader market has begun to show signs of recovery. Bitcoin briefly bounced off the Iran shock lows above the $70K mark.
On the other hand, $50 billion is massive latent selling pressure. Even a small macro bump could trigger a panic selloff. Ripple’s internal transfer of $200 million remains unresolved, adding to institutional uncertainty. MEXC recently reported that the US XRP Spot ETF saw a net outflow of $18.8 million in a single day, another bearish signal.
Speculation surrounding the FOMC meeting on March 18 suggests a 95.5% chance that rates will remain unchanged. No relief catalyst there. Technicals are broken too. XRP’s one-week chart shows a steep downtrend with no clear reversal point in sight, suggesting the market should brace for another leg down.
What to Watch for?
XRP’s current support sits at $1.14. A drop below it could trigger a massive leg down to $0.45, XRP’s price level from November 2024. A daily close above $1.68 could flip the short-term narrative to bullish.
Two factors investors should watch closely: Ripple’s clarification on the $200 million XRP transfer and funding rates as short-squeeze signals.
Final Thoughts
XRP’s $50 billion underwater supply creates a binary setup. Stakes are high on both sides. Whether the current scenario marks the market bottom or a prelude to new lows, XRP’s price action will be significant in the coming days.
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