Cardano (ADA) Poised for a 30% Rally, But Only if One Condition is Met

While some analysts think ADA could climb as high as $0.50 in the near term, certain indicators also point to the possibility of a pullback.

The cryptocurrency market has posted an evident upswing over the past several days, with Cardano’s ADA following the green wave.

Its price surged 8% on a weekly basis, while some analysts believe a more substantial pump may be in the making.

The Necessary Condition

According to the popular market observer Ali Martinez, ADA “is setting up for a bullish breakout.” He argued that the prolonged sideways movement is nearing an end, outlining $0.304 as the upper boundary of this channel.

Martinez predicted that a breakout above this level could open the door to an increase to $0.338 and even $0.376. As of press time, Cardano’s native token trades at around $0.28 and is quite close to the depicted mark.

X user ZAYK Charts also presented an optimistic forecast. The analyst claimed that ADA has broken out of a falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, suggesting this could be a precursor to a “massive bullish wave” above $0.50.

For their part, Celal Kucuker expects the cryptocurrency to experience heightened volatility and eventually skyrocket to a new all-time high of $5.67 sometime next year.

Meanwhile, ADA remains oversold on a weekly scale with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 30. Such ratios are considered bullish and indicate that a rally could be on the horizon. On the contrary, readings above 70 signal overbought conditions and hint that a correction might be imminent.

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Dead Cat Bounce?

Other on-chain indicators, though, suggest that ADA could head south in the short term. Over the past few days, exchange inflows have exceeded outflows, meaning that some investors have abandoned self-custody and transferred their holdings to centralized platforms. This is typically seen as a pre-sale step.

The recent whale behavior should also be taken into consideration. Earlier this month, large investors sold or redistributed 130 million ADA over a seven-day period, bringing their total holdings down to roughly 13.5 billion coins. A similar pattern was observed at the beginning of March, when whales moved about 230 million tokens.

When this cohort of investors unloads a substantial amount of ADA, it increases the available supply on the market, which can put downward pressure on the price. Big players often move before the crowd, so their selling spree can signal that they expect weaker conditions ahead. This kind of activity could scare smaller investors and might trigger panic selling on their part.