One prominent Cardano analyst is arguing that ADA could still reach $5, despite the possibility of one last painful dip.
The technician maps out two scenarios on the chart. Under a corrective A-B-C count, price may briefly breach $0.21 to complete the final wave and hand buyers the ultimate low-risk entry; the C leg typically wraps up faster than the preceding A wave.
In the alternative impulse count, the bottom is already in, meaning current levels represent an optimal accumulation zone. Whichever path plays out, the analyst argues that dollar-cost averaging at today’s prices stands to deliver strong returns over the long haul, with future valuations comfortably clearing $5, $10, $25 and potentially climbing all the way to $50.
Supporting data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment reinforces the contrarian setup. Wallets that have remained active on the Cardano network over the past year are currently experiencing an average loss of 43%. Such extreme negative realized returns in a zero-sum market have repeatedly signaled opportunity zones, because average investor returns across any timeframe tend to gravitate back toward breakeven.
Meanwhile, funding rates on Binance show the largest imbalance between short and long positions since June 2023.
 
That said, market signals point to the real altcoin season finally beginning for the first time in eight years. A clean breakout from the long-standing convergence zone on the ETH/BTC pair would mark the official start of the rally, with the entire 2021 bull market now viewed as little more than preparation for the move ahead.
At press time, CoinMarketCap data on the altcoin index sits at 48/100 (Bitcoin Season), down from 49 yesterday, 53 last week, and 34 last month. CoinMarketCap data on ADA shows Cardano up 1.85% to $0.272 in 24h, outperforming a modestly positive market, primarily driven by a shift in sentiment away from historically bearish positioning.
If ADA holds above the $0.251 support, a test of $0.280 resistance is likely; a break below risks a revisit to $0.21.
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