Fresh talks between the US and Iran are uncertain, casting doubt on diplomatic progress. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 37.5% YES, down from 59% just 24 hours ago. Market reaction With 12 days until expiration, […]
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, has blasted past 800,000 BTC in total holdings after announcing its latest purchases. Strategy acquired 34,164 Bitcoin (BTC) for $2.54 billion between April 13 and 19, […]
Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, then reversed course, prompting the US Navy to seize an Iranian ship. The Polymarket contract on S&P 500 movement for April 17 holds at 100% YES, unchanged despite the […]
The US government has started refunding up to $166 billion in tariffs imposed under President Trump after the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs unlawful. On Polymarket’s Trump Tariffs / Trade War market, the odds of […]
Pakistan’s Interior Minister met with Iran’s ambassador to discuss the second phase of the Islamabad talks. The probability of the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happening in Islamabad by June 30 is at 3.7% YES, up […]
Kevin Hassett revealed that Trump believes peace talks with Iran are imminent. The odds for a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sit at 16.5% YES, down from 40% just 24 hours ago. Market reaction […]
The Netherlands has set aside over €950 million to counteract economic fallout from the 2026 Iran war. The market for WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April has seen a 15% increase in expected odds. […]
China’s President Xi Jinping has urged an immediate ceasefire and restoration of normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire extension by April 21, 2026, market is at 69.5% YES, down from 86% […]
White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett says Trump’s posts show progress on Iran. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is at 47.5% YES, down from 62% yesterday. Hassett’s comments moved the […]
Israeli drone flights over Beirut are raising questions about the durability of the Lebanon ceasefire. The market for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 sits at 100% YES, even as these incursions […]
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