The CFTC is investigating $580 million in oil futures trades placed just before President Trump’s announcement to halt U.S. strikes on Iran. On Polymarket, the contract for crude oil hitting $90 by end of June […]
Iran arrested an Ahwazi separatist leader in Khuzestan as part of a broader crackdown. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 sit at 4.5% YES, down from 6% a week ago. The […]
The International Monetary Fund has warned of a potential global recession due to high oil prices, exacerbated by the ongoing Iran conflict. The ECB 50 bps rate cut market sits at 0.1% YES, while the […]
Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari has introduced Articles of Impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, citing violations of his oath and war crimes in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The odds of a U.S. declaration of war […]
The idea of a hidden backdoor in Bitcoin strikes at the very heart of what the network claims to represent: decentralization, transparency, and trustless control. Over the years, a persistent theory has circulated, suggesting that […]
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump tariffs might be reinstated by July following a Supreme Court setback, pushing the odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 to 81.5% YES on Polymarket. The April […]
Peru’s JEE will review over 4,000 observed tally sheets, potentially altering the runoff outcome. On Polymarket, Rafael López Aliaga’s odds of winning the presidency sit at 16.5% YES, with the review likely to push them […]
Pakistan is pushing for new US-Iran peace negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market is at 10.5% YES, unchanged despite the diplomatic initiative. The April 22 peace deal market sits at 20.5% YES, up from 20% yesterday. Traders […]
The US has initiated a multi-layered naval blockade on Iranian ports using F-35s, destroyers, and satellite surveillance, according to Al Arabiya. The probability of the US lifting the blockade by May 31 sits at 80% […]
The S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time, adding $6 trillion in market cap over 12 trading days. The move coincides with de-escalating US-Iran tensions and upcoming peace talks. The Polymarket contract for the […]
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