Ceasefire odds plummet as Iran war escalates, April 7 market at 1% YES

Explosions in Kuwait and Iranian missile strikes on Haifa continue in the 2026 Iran war. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and Israeli cities have traders bearish on a quick ceasefire. The April 7 market is nearly at zero, reflecting little confidence in an immediate diplomatic solution. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, indicating low chances of peace soon.

Market trends show declining short-term optimism. The April 30 market fell from 40% to 17.5% YES, suggesting traders expect de-escalation beyond the immediate conflict window. The May 31 odds are at 36.5% YES, down from 52%.

Trading volume is at $431,402 across all sub-markets, with varying order book depth. The April 7 market needs $12,352 to shift odds by 5 points, indicating potential volatility. The April 15 market is more stable, requiring $40,093 for a similar move.

The ongoing conflict and hardline rhetoric from both sides suggest a low probability of a ceasefire soon. Traders betting on a YES outcome for April 7 at 1¢ face high risk, with the market heavily skewed towards continued conflict. Significant diplomatic moves or a lull in hostilities are needed for a YES outcome to gain traction.

Watch for CENTCOM statements or diplomatic efforts from Oman or Qatar. These could change market perceptions if they indicate a move towards de-escalation.

Markets Impacted

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