Protests in Tel Aviv against the Iran war and a Houthi missile launch towards Israel have sent US-Iran ceasefire odds tumbling. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
The April 7 ceasefire market is effectively dead with only four days left. Traders are less optimistic about April 15 at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The biggest shock came in the April 30 market, now at 18% YES, down from 24% a day ago. This reflects traders’ skepticism about any near-term diplomatic breakthrough amid escalating proxy activity and domestic unrest in Israel.
The volume data is telling. While the face value suggests high activity at $3.76M across all sub-markets, actual USDC traded is just $431K. The thin order book means it only takes $12K to swing the April 7 market by five points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a modest 2-point spike for April 30, likely a reaction to short-lived optimism before reality set in.
The events are bearish for ceasefire prospects. Protests in Tel Aviv and military escalations suggest rising tensions. This news is from a Tier 3 source, meaning it could be noise, but it’s aligned with the broader narrative of stalled peace efforts. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 is a long shot. For a 100x return, you’d need to believe a diplomatic miracle occurs within four days.
Watch for statements from Secretary of State Rubio or any intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar. Trump’s rhetoric or any shift from CENTCOM could also sway markets. With escalating military actions, expect little movement toward peace unless a major diplomatic signal emerges.
Markets Impacted
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