Iran’s insistence on sanctions relief and US force withdrawal before negotiations has increased tensions. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The April 7 market is under pressure, dropping 2 points today. Traders are reacting to the disagreement over negotiation terms. The April 15 market also fell, now at 18% YES from 20% yesterday. However, the April 30 market rose 4 points to 38% YES, indicating traders expect changes by late April.
Ceasefire markets are active, with volume at $1,365,780 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It takes over $15K to shift April 7 odds by 5 points. A notable move was a 2-point drop at 8:13 AM, likely due to today’s news.
The firm positions from both sides suggest a low chance of a quick resolution. The April 7 market reflects this with a 12x payout on a YES share at 8¢ if a ceasefire occurs. The April 30 market shows more optimism, suggesting traders anticipate a breakthrough by then.
Watch for Secretary of State Rubio’s next statement and any intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar. Changes in rhetoric or signs of back-channel talks could significantly impact odds.
Markets Impacted
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