Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage traffic through the Hormuz Strait. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 8.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
Traders view the Hormuz protocol as a diplomatic gesture, boosting longer-term odds. The April 30 market rose to 38.5% YES from 36% yesterday. The biggest movement is between April 15 and April 30, with a 20-point jump suggesting traders expect a catalyst then. The May 31 odds are at 55.5%, indicating cautious optimism.
The market sees $1.37M daily in USDC trades, showing strong interest. It takes $15K to $44K to move prices by 5 points, indicating deep liquidity. The largest recent move was a 4-point spike for April 30 odds at 10:56 AM, likely driven by protocol news.
This protocol is more a diplomatic gesture than a breakthrough. Iran and Oman talking is positive, but no one’s laying down arms yet. A YES share at 8.5¢ for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 — an 11.8x return. However, believing that requires a sudden diplomatic sprint in five days. Watch for Oman or Qatar stepping up as mediators — any formal role could turn this narrative real.
Watch Hegseth’s Pentagon briefings for any change in tone. The Sultan of Oman and Qatar’s moves are also key. Their involvement could catalyze further diplomatic traction.
Markets Impacted
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