Iran’s economy is deteriorating strategically, even with record oil revenues. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have risen to 14% YES, up from 12% yesterday.
Iran’s economic fundamentals are crumbling despite increased oil revenues, pushing the June 30 market to 14% YES. A 1-point rise last night shows trader interest, though the market remains below last week’s 20%. Sanctions, conflict, and unrest are heightening regime instability.
The market for the Iranian regime’s fall sees $59,602 in daily trading volume. It would take $195,747 to move the price by 5 points, indicating strong order book depth. The recent 1-point increase suggests traders are cautious but watching economic signals closely.
Economic strain is significant but not yet catastrophic for the regime. Oil revenues aren’t offsetting broader economic issues, and unrest may rise. At 14¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a 7x payout. Confidence in growing unrest or leadership instability is needed within 88 days for this to be attractive.
Watch for IRGC fractures or Mojtaba Khamenei disappearing from public view. Such events could move the market. Also, monitor the Assembly of Experts for unexpected activity indicating internal shifts.
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