Iran has released a list of Gulf bridge targets following coalition strikes on the B1 Bridge in Karaj. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 2% YES, down from 22% last week.
The market shows a clear pessimistic shift. April 15 odds are now at 8% YES, down from 32%. Traders don’t expect a ceasefire soon, with significant spreads between April 30 and May 31 suggesting a potential catalyst. April 7 and April 15 odds have dropped, reflecting increased tensions.
The market for US forces entering Iran sees increased speculation, indicating potential military escalation involving US ground forces.
USDC volume traded in the ceasefire market is $535,634. Price resistance requires $25,858 to move 5 percentage points in the April 7 market. The largest single move was a 1-point drop, showing market stability amidst uncertainty.
This news is credible but should be interpreted cautiously. Odds suggest traders are wary of further military escalation. A YES share at 2¢ for an April 7 ceasefire would pay $1 if successful, but requires belief in rapid diplomatic intervention — a risky bet now.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM, shifts in GCC nations’ military postures, and intermediary activities from Oman or Qatar. These will indicate any changes in ceasefire probabilities.
Markets Impacted
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