Iran’s military warns a ceasefire could allow the US to regroup for further strikes. The USS Gerald R. Ford’s return to sea signals ongoing US naval presence. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.9% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
The Iranian statement has hit ceasefire prospects, showing distrust in US intentions. April 15 odds fell to 8.5% YES, from 20% yesterday. April 30 odds dropped to 24.5% YES, from 40%. Traders doubt a near-term resolution, despite the USS Ford’s redeployment.
Volume at $95,893 USDC for the April 7 market, with $26,211 needed to move 5 points. This market’s thin depth means a single large trade could significantly sway odds. The largest move in the past day was a 1-point drop, indicating a cautious approach among traders.
Traders remain skeptical of imminent peace. Holding a YES share at 2¢ for April 7 could yield a 50x return if a ceasefire is announced. However, given the current rhetoric, this is unlikely without a major diplomatic shift. Watch for announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or a shift in US-Iran communications.
Watch for the next Pentagon briefing or statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader successor. Any softening in language or resumed talks could jolt these markets.
Markets Impacted
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Be the first to comment