Iraqi PMF forces have reportedly entered Iran’s Khuzestan province to support the Iranian regime. This has pushed the odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 up to 86% YES, from 62% a day ago.
The PMF’s move signals deeper Iraqi involvement, increasing the likelihood of US ground operations. The April 30 market saw a 4-point spike at 2:14 PM. The December 31 market also rose to 90.5% YES, up from 72% in the last 24 hours. The spread between these dates suggests traders expect imminent developments, with April as the focus.
Trading volume is robust, with $4.2M in USDC traded daily for the April sub-market. It takes $84,737 to move the price 5 points, indicating institutional-grade depth. The largest move was a 4-point spike, likely driven by significant orders reacting to the PMF’s entry into Iran.
This development marks an escalation in the tense situation, with PMF’s illegal presence in Iran preparing for potential US ground operations. Traders betting on a YES share at 86¢ stand to gain a 1.16x return if troops enter Iran by April 30. The recent rise in odds reflects increased conviction that the US will respond to this escalation.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon, especially from Hegseth or Trump. Announcements of troop movements or strategies will be critical. Trump’s recent ultimatum adds pressure, making this a volatile period for the market.
Markets Impacted
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