An analyst tracking Elliott Wave patterns shared his Q2 outlook for XRP, noting that the first-quarter forecast largely unfolded as anticipated despite ongoing market frustration.
Back in early January, the base case called for an incomplete larger correction with range-bound trading and the possibility of one final low before any meaningful recovery. That scenario played out when XRP touched the $1.20 support zone, then staged a roughly 55% rally from those levels.
Two main paths remain on the table. In the bullish white scenario, wave 4 may have bottomed in March 2020 as part of a larger diagonal structure, setting up a potential third wave higher after a possible B-wave dip. Critical support levels to watch in that case are $0.98, $0.73, and ideally no lower than $0.48.
The more immediately bullish yellow count assumes wave 4 completed as a triangle in July 2024, with the current move forming part of a fifth wave. A decisive break below $1.21, the 50% retracement level held since February, would invalidate this path and favor a deeper correction.
The analyst leans toward the white count at present, in line with similar setups on Bitcoin and Ethereum. A corrective B-wave bounce toward the $1.76–$2.86 resistance zone remains possible in Q2, provided the February low holds. Any such rally would likely prove temporary and three-wave in structure, followed by a potential C-wave decline later in Q2 or early Q3.
 
The update also stresses the importance of flexibility. Wave 4 environments often deliver sideways action and waning interest, which is typical behavior ahead of turning points. The next moves at resistance and the reaction to key levels will clarify whether the structure favors continuation or further consolidation.
At press time, CoinMarketCap data shows BTC down 2.82% to $66,772.30 over the past 24h, closely tracking a 1.48% drop in the total crypto market cap. The move is primarily driven by a macro sell-off, as Bitcoin shows strong 24-hour correlations of 0.73 with the S&P 500 and 0.65 with Gold, indicating a rates-sensitive move in traditional markets.
If Bitcoin holds above the $64,972 swing low, it could consolidate; a break below risks testing the $63,000 area. The next key trigger is U.S. PCE inflation data due April 1st.
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