Noah Levine: New protocols will revolutionize B2B commerce, skepticism around autonomous consumer agents, and the compatibility of card payments with stablecoins

Key Takeaways

• New protocols are set to revolutionize B2B commerce, creating demand for innovative services.
• Most agentic activities will occur within businesses, mirroring today’s SaaS market.
• Skepticism exists around agents autonomously transacting for individuals.
• Consumer decisions are heavily influenced by qualitative inputs discovered through experience.
• Market sentiment often outpaces actual technological development in the crypto space.
• Card payment technologies are compatible with stablecoins, facilitating adaptation to new commerce forms.
• Card networks excel in risk scoring, while blockchains offer instant settlement but lack risk assessment.
• Blockchains are likely to see more experimentation due to their open nature.
• Bottom-up agents are more autonomous, operating without human intervention.
• Commercial and consumer agents function as assistants rather than autonomous transactors.
• The integration of traditional and digital payment systems is crucial for commerce evolution.
• The open, permissionless nature of blockchains fosters innovation and experimentation.
• Understanding the limitations of current agent technologies is key to grasping their business roles.

Guest intro

Noah Levine is a Partner at a16z. He previously contributed to discussions on AI agents, stablecoins, and payment infrastructure in an agentic economy.

The transformation of B2B commerce

• The rise of new protocols will lead to a new class of merchants and a transformation in B2B commerce.

  — Noah Levine

• Developers are driving demand for new services, paving the way for innovative B2B solutions.

• What we’re seeing is that there’s this whole new demand for new services that these developers want to use.

  — Noah Levine

• New protocols like MPP and X402 are shaping the future of commerce.
• Understanding these protocols is crucial for grasping their impact on developer behavior.
• The prediction showcases Noah’s expertise in technological advancements in commerce.
• High confidence in the transformative potential of these new protocols.
• The future of B2B commerce is closely tied to technological innovation.

Dominance of commercial agents

• The majority of agentic activities will be commercial agents deployed within businesses.

  — Noah Levine

• Commercial agents will dominate, similar to the current SaaS market landscape.

• I think 95% plus of kind of you know most most agentic you know activities ultimately going to be these commercial agents.

  — Noah Levine

• The role of agents in commerce is primarily within business environments.
• High confidence in the prediction about the future landscape of agentic commerce.
• Commercial agents are crucial for business operations and efficiency.
• Understanding their deployment is key to leveraging their potential.
• The prediction emphasizes the dominance of commercial agents in the market.

Skepticism about autonomous consumer agents

• I am skeptical that agents will autonomously transact on behalf of individuals.

  — Noah Levine

• Challenges exist in consumer agents autonomously handling personal transactions.
• The opinion challenges assumptions about consumer agent capabilities.
• High confidence in the critical perspective on consumer agents.
• Limitations of consumer agents highlight the complexity of personal transactions.
• Autonomous transactions by consumer agents face significant hurdles.
• Understanding these challenges is crucial for realistic expectations.
• The skepticism provides a balanced view of consumer agent functionality.

Influence of qualitative inputs on consumer decisions

• Consumer decisions are influenced by qualitative inputs that are often revealed through the process of discovery.

  — Noah Levine

• Experiential learning plays a significant role in shaping consumer behavior.
• Agents may lack the context needed for nuanced decision-making.
• High confidence in the insight about consumer behavior complexity.
• Qualitative inputs are crucial for understanding consumer preferences.
• The process of discovery is essential for informed consumer decisions.
• Agents face limitations in capturing the full context of consumer choices.
• Understanding these influences is key to improving agent functionality.

Market sentiment vs. technological progress

• The market’s social sentiment has outpaced the actual development of bottom-up agents.

  — Noah Levine

• There’s a disconnect between market enthusiasm and technological adoption.
• The opinion critiques the gap between hype and reality in the crypto space.
• High confidence in the critique of market sentiment and technological progress.
• Understanding this gap is crucial for realistic expectations in the crypto market.
• Market sentiment often leads to inflated expectations of technological capabilities.
• The critique highlights the importance of aligning expectations with reality.
• The opinion provides a critical perspective on market dynamics in the crypto space.

Compatibility of card payments and stablecoins

• The technology behind card payments and stablecoins is fundamentally compatible.

  — Noah Levine

• Cards can adapt to new forms of commerce through technological integration.
• Understanding this compatibility is crucial for the evolution of commerce.
• High confidence in the potential for integration between traditional and digital payment systems.
• The insight highlights the adaptability of card networks to emerging technologies.
• Compatibility facilitates the seamless transition to new commerce forms.
• The integration is essential for the future of digital transactions.
• The insight underscores the importance of technological adaptability in commerce.

Strengths and weaknesses of card networks and blockchains

• Card networks excel in risk scoring and transaction authentication, while blockchains provide instant settlement but lack effective risk scoring.

  — Noah Levine

• Each system has its strengths and weaknesses in transaction processing.
• High confidence in the comparison of card networks and blockchains.
• Understanding these differences is crucial for improving transaction systems.
• The insight highlights critical areas for improvement in both systems.
• Risk scoring and instant settlement are key factors in transaction efficiency.
• The comparison provides a clear understanding of the roles of each system.
• The insight emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to transaction processing.

Experimentation on blockchains

• Blockchains will likely see more experimentation due to their open, permissionless nature.

  — Noah Levine

• Blockchains offer less friction for innovation compared to traditional systems.
• High confidence in the potential for experimentation on blockchains.
• Understanding the advantages of blockchains is crucial for fostering innovation.
• The opinion highlights the role of blockchains in driving technological progress.
• Experimentation is essential for the evolution of financial systems.
• The open nature of blockchains encourages creative solutions and advancements.
• The insight underscores the importance of embracing blockchain technology for innovation.

Autonomy of bottom-up agents

• Bottom-up agents are more autonomous than commercial and consumer agents, which have narrow guardrails.

  — Noah Levine

• Bottom-up agents operate without human intervention, procuring resources independently.
• High confidence in the differentiation between types of agents.
• Understanding the autonomy of bottom-up agents is crucial for their effective use.
• The insight highlights the implications of agent autonomy for functionality.
• Bottom-up agents offer greater flexibility and independence in operations.
• The distinction between agent types is essential for leveraging their capabilities.
• The insight provides a clear understanding of the roles and limitations of different agents.

Limitations of commercial and consumer agents

• Commercial and consumer agents serve more as assistants without the ability to transact autonomously.

  — Noah Levine

• These agents are limited in their transactional capabilities.
• High confidence in the opinion about the limitations of current agent technologies.
• Understanding these limitations is crucial for realistic expectations of agent roles.
• The opinion highlights the need for further development in agent technology.
• Commercial and consumer agents play supportive roles in business processes.
• The limitations emphasize the importance of human involvement in transactions.
• The insight provides a balanced view of the current state of agent technologies.