Pakistan and Egypt are mediating talks between the US and Iran to prevent attacks on Iranian facilities. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 market is at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
The April 7 odds are scraping the bottom, with just four days left. The April 15 market shows slightly more optimism at 6% YES, though it’s still a long shot, having slipped from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market is more active, sitting at 18% YES, down from 24% the previous day. The biggest jump in odds is between April 30 and May 31, where it climbs 19 points, indicating the possibility of a catalyst in late May.
Trading volume shows cautious interest. While face value across these markets hits $3.7M/day, actual USDC traded is $430K. The April 30 market is the most liquid short-term bet, with $196,968 in actual USDC daily and $19,938 needed to move the price 5 points. This suggests moderately deep order books, but not impervious to large orders.
The mediation efforts by Pakistan and Egypt signal a diplomatic push but come from a tier-3 source, making traders hesitant to weigh it heavily. With April 7 only four days away, it’s seen as noise rather than a game-changer. However, if these talks lead to concrete outcomes, they could shift the narrative for later dates. A YES share for a ceasefire by April 30 at 18¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 5.5x return that requires significant belief in rapid de-escalation.
Watch for statements from US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi. An announcement of resumed direct talks or specific concessions could jolt these markets significantly.
Markets Impacted
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Be the first to comment