Samsung Electronics’ shares got a nice boost on Tuesday morning after the company predicted a record-breaking quarter fueled by the massive boom in AI hardware. The stock jumped as much as 4.8% during the day before settling into a 1.76% gain by the close.
Summary
- Samsung Electronics shares rose after forecasting record Q1 profit, driven by strong AI memory demand.
- Operating profit is projected at 57.2 trillion won, more than eight times higher year over year and above analyst estimates.
- Supply chain risks tied to Middle East tensions could disrupt chip materials like helium and weigh on the outlook if prolonged.
According to its early estimates, Samsung is looking at an operating profit of roughly 57.2 trillion won, which is about $37.8 billion, for the first quarter. To put that massive figure in perspective, it is more than eight times what the company made during the same time last year.
If these numbers hold, it will set a brand new quarterly record for the company. The projected profit is nearly triple their previous all-time high and easily crushed the 42.3 trillion won that analysts were originally expecting.
The revenue side looks just as impressive. Samsung expects sales to hit about 133 trillion won, which is a nearly 70% jump year over year. This would also mark the first time the company’s quarterly revenue has ever crossed the 100 trillion won threshold.
MS Hwang, a research analyst at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC that Samsung’s latest numbers are so huge that they are now rivaling the scale of global Big Tech giants.
The strong outlook is largely tied to demand for high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, a critical component used in accelerators from companies like NVIDIA and AMD that power artificial intelligence workloads. Expansion of data centers and rapid growth in AI model training have significantly increased memory requirements, tightening supply and pushing prices higher.
Industry projections suggest memory prices tied to data center applications will continue rising in the coming months. Samsung’s earnings trajectory shows how deeply the AI boom has translated into financial performance, with memory chips forming the core of its profit engine.
Demand for HBM has surged over the past year, leading to supply shortages across the memory market and driving sharp increases in both pricing and shipment volumes. Hwang noted that commodity memory prices could rise by more than 50% in the second quarter, with tight supply conditions expected to persist.
Samsung is also looking to regain its footing in the high-bandwidth memory segment after ceding early leadership to domestic rival SK Hynix, which was quicker to supply advanced AI memory.
Samsung’s Device Solutions division, which houses its memory chip business, accounted for 39% of total revenue and 57% of operating profit in 2025, underlining the segment’s importance to overall earnings.
The company is set to release its full earnings report later this month. While current projections point to strong performance, external risks remain.
Geopolitical risks in focus
Rising tensions in the Middle East are starting to disrupt semiconductor supply chains, with shipments of key materials such as helium facing delays.
The U.S.–Israel conflict involving Iran has raised concerns about access to these inputs, which are essential for chip production, increasing the risk of operational challenges for major manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
“If the Middle East conflict ends quickly, it will not significantly impact profits. However, if it persists for several months or longer, it will lead to severe consequences,” Hwang said.
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