SOL hovers at $79–$81 below the 50-day SMA for the third time since October 2025. History says this calm before a storm could send SOL toward $52.
Solana is doing something it has done twice before. Price sits between $79 and $81. The 50-day simple moving average is at $85.79. SOL is below it, again.
That gap is not random. According to @alicharts on X, this exact setup has played out three times since October 2025, and the structure keeps repeating.
The Three-Step Trap Playing Out Again
The pattern runs in three phases. First, SOL rallies and closes above the 50-day SMA. Then it loses that level as support. What follows is not an immediate sell-off.
Instead, price drifts sideways. That drift is the trap.
@alicharts calls it the “Consolidation Phase,” a period of sideways movement that looks like stabilization but historically precedes the actual leg down. The calm comes before the drop, not after.
In November 2025, SOL broke below the 50-day SMA and entered a multi-week consolidation. The market eventually resolved lower to a new local bottom. January 2026 followed the same script. Solana briefly reclaimed the moving average then lost it. Sideways drift. Then another major sell-off.
$86 Is the Number to Watch
Mid-March 2026 saw SOL peak near $97. It was trading above the 50-day SMA then. That level has since given way.
Now, as @alicharts flagged on X, SOL sits in that familiar sideways zone between $79 and $81 with the 50-day SMA sitting at $85.79. The Solana price structure has shown repeatedly how fast key levels break once daily closes confirm the move.
The critical threshold is $86. A failure to reclaim that level quickly, according to the analysis shared by @alicharts on X, could project a move toward $52. That is not a minor pullback. It would mark a roughly 35% decline from current prices.
This is the third time this pattern has set up since October 2025. The first two resolved bearishly. Nothing about the current price action breaks from that template.
Sideways Is Not Safe
Most traders read sideways movement as indecision or recovery. The pattern @alicharts has been tracking suggests the opposite. Consolidation here is the coiling phase, not the resolution.
SOL needs a fast, clean reclaim of $86 to break the cycle. Without that, the technical picture aligns with what played out in November and January. Both times, patience paid only for the sellers.
The $79 to $81 range is where the pattern currently lives. It has been here before. Both times it left this range, it moved lower.
Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis and publicly available market data. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.
Be the first to comment