Key Takeaways Polymarket traders give bitcoin just a 27% chance of hitting $100,000 before 2027, despite $75.1M in trading. Kalshi’s October forecast sits at $87,000, while its year-end bitcoin projection stands at $83,554. Polymarket bettors […]
Key Takeaways Kalshi’s notional volume reached a record $3.91 billion on Saturday and $3.96 billion on Sunday. Combos made up 71.6% of Saturday’s volume and 69.4% of Sunday’s, and most of the weekly growth. Combos […]
Key Takeaways Sydney Sweeney’s new Novig ad mocks insider trading on “dictators dying” and bets on war. Novig posted the 30-second spot on Oct. 11, a month after its Sept. 9 launch ad drew athletes’ […]
Key Takeaways A Polymarket account spent about $146,700 on 623,449 Eagles shares at 23 cents, two hours before kickoff. Eagles shares hit 99 cents after Jake Elliott’s field goal put Philadelphia ahead with eight seconds […]
Dodd’s brief then took issue with the CFTC’s argument that it has “exclusive jurisdiction” over these products. “Nor is the CEA’s grant of ‘exclusive jurisdiction’ to the CFTC an express preemption provision immunizing every contract […]
Federal regulators are drawing a sharp line between casino-style gambling and event contracts in derivatives oversight. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission says it published an interim final rule codifying the exclusion of casino-style gambling products, […]
Key Takeaways Polymarket gives Democrats 62% odds of sweeping Congress, while Kalshi puts the probability at 61%. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in September, leaving crypto regulation exposed to a political shake-up. November’s elections […]
The “interim final” status of the one rule means it becomes immediate policy but will be open for public input as it’s implemented. The other rule proposal explicitly folds “event contracts, including those based on […]
Key Takeaways Navi Pillay won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize; neither Polymarket nor Kalshi had her as a named option. Yulia Navalnaya jumped from about 5 cents to trade at 70.6 cents on Polymarket hours […]
Other prediction markets critics included the guy who ran the CFTC when Dodd-Frank was implemented, Gensler. The ex-regulator (who also ran afoul of the crypto industry when he later led the Securities and Exchange Commission) […]
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