Key Takeaways Kalshi’s 15-minute gold markets traded 539 million contracts in September, against 317 million for Ether. 15-minute markets made 80% of Kalshi’s non-sports fees in the week to Oct. 5, according to InGame. Bitcoin […]
Key Takeaways Don Davis’ bill would bar federal candidates from betting on their own races. Kalshi banned Laurie Buckhout for 3 years, intensifying scrutiny of political betting. FEC would track candidates weekly, under the proposed […]
Key Takeaways Judge Martha Pacold found Kalshi’s title-game contracts are likely swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Illinois’ licensing rules and a related criminal provision are likely preempted and cannot be enforced. Judge Says a […]
Key Takeaways Polymarket is running Protocol V2 canary markets from Oct. 5 to Oct. 30 before a tentative Nov. 2 switchover. V2 swaps the 2019 Gnosis token framework for one ERC-1155 contract, pUSD collateral, and […]
Key Takeaways Polymarket is challenging the Dutch ban in court, arguing it sells derivatives rather than bets. The KSA moved to collect a €420,000 ($471,000) penalty after ruling Polymarket blocked Dutch users too late. KSA […]
Key Takeaways Novig says trading volume rose nearly 94% in the 20 days around its Sept. 9 Sydney Sweeney ad. First-time depositors jumped more than 218% and app downloads climbed 187%, co-founder Jacob Fortinsky said. […]
Key Takeaways Bolsonaro defeated Lula in Brazil’s first round, forcing a tight October 25 runoff. Prediction markets correctly foresaw this upset, outperforming flawed national polls. This success cements prediction platforms as superior data engines for […]
Galaxy studied 2.9 million human-paced Polymarket accounts and found that losses dominated. Interestingly, sports specialists performed worst among major categories. Most retail traders on Polymarket lose money. A Galaxy Research study of 2.9 million […]
The prediction markets fight has escalated to the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) amid conflicting rulings by lower courts over Kalshi’s sports event contracts. On the 3rd of October, two groups representing gambling regulators, IAGR (International […]
Key Takeaways The CFTC sent two rules to the White House on Sept. 28 to redraw the legal definition of a swap. One adds event contracts; the other excludes casino-style gambling and takes effect on […]
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