Karen Kwiatkowski’s comments on Trump’s Iran strategy bring new doubts. US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 sits at 8.5% YES, down from 26% a week ago.
The market for a ceasefire by April 7 shows declining confidence, with odds dropping from 26% to 8.5% in a week. The April 15 market is also down, at 19.5% YES from 34%. The largest drop is in the April 30 market, which fell 12 points to 39.5% YES.
Market trading shows high liquidity, with volume at $1,378,713 in USDC over the past 24 hours across all sub-markets. The April 15 market alone sees $620,002 traded daily, indicating strong interest. However, the order book depth suggests vulnerability to large trades—$32,218 to move the April 7 market 5 points. The biggest single move was a 4-point spike in the April 30 market at 10:56 AM, likely reacting to new military developments.
Trump’s potential NATO withdrawal amid military pressure signals a strategic pivot that could further reduce ceasefire odds. If NATO withdrawal becomes formal, it could push these markets further down. At 8.5¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1—an 11.7x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent within the next six days.
Watch for any official statement from Trump on NATO, as this could catalyze further market movements. See how European leaders respond; any indication of compromise could reverse current trends.
Markets Impacted
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