The U.S. and Israel are preparing military strikes inside Iran if negotiations fail. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 5.7% YES, up from 2% yesterday but down from 10% a week ago.
The April 7 market shows little confidence in a last-minute resolution. The April 15 odds are at 21.5% YES, climbing from 12% over the past day. The April 30 market reflects a 33.5% YES, down from 40% a week ago, indicating skepticism about quick diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market sees significant activity with volume at $153,508 in USDC traded daily. The order book is thin; $2,531 can move the April 7 odds by 5 points. The largest 24-hour price move was a 2-point spike at 10:02 AM, likely reacting to the news of potential strikes.
The planned strikes are a bearish signal for ceasefire odds, suggesting escalation rather than resolution. Without concrete diplomatic progress, traders are pricing in further military action. At 5.7¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire happens — a 17.5x return. For this bet to be worthwhile, you’d need to believe in a rapid de-escalation within hours.
Watch for statements from key actors like CENTCOM or any intermediary activity by Oman or Qatar. These could signal a shift back towards diplomacy, impacting the odds.
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