The U.S. and Israel are prepared to strike Iranian targets if negotiations collapse. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
The April 7 market is nearly inactive, with traders dismissing the possibility of a ceasefire. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, down from 22% last week. The narrow 5-point spread over eight days shows little hope for a diplomatic breakthrough.
Further out, the April 30 market at 17.5% YES has dropped from 24% in the last day. The largest increase in odds occurs between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders expect any major diplomatic efforts in early May.
The market trades with significant liquidity, with volume at $431,402 over the past 24 hours. Moving the April 7 market by 5 points requires just $12,352, highlighting its thin trading. A major investor could shift these odds, but current news makes such a move unlikely.
This aligns with the trend toward escalation over diplomacy. Traders hoping for an April 7 ceasefire are facing long odds. At 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced, offering a 100x return for the hopeful.
Watch for Oman or Qatar to act as intermediaries or for changes in rhetoric from figures like Trump or Rubio. Without these, expect odds to keep falling.
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