The US strike on an Iranian bridge aimed at halting weapons movement signals a military escalation. Ceasefire by April 7 odds dropped to 1.8% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
The strike targeted Iran’s B1 bridge near Tehran, disrupting logistics from the capital to western launch sites. This action, part of the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran, has further lowered ceasefire probability. The April 15 market now sits at 8.5% YES, a decline from 18% the previous day. The April 30 market is at 23.5% YES, dropping from 40% over the same time.
The market’s term structure suggests a pessimistic outlook for an early resolution. The April 30 to May 31 period shows a 22-point jump, indicating traders anticipate a significant catalyst in May. This reflects the expectation that intensified military operations will continue to overshadow diplomatic efforts in the short term.
The ceasefire market trades with $49,281 in actual USDC daily, and it takes $25,788 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move within the last 24 hours was a 1-point drop at 1:12 AM, showing a cautious market reaction but no panic.
This escalation reduces ceasefire prospects as the conflict enters its 34th day. With more strikes expected, the likelihood of diplomatic progress diminishes. However, if there’s a sudden diplomatic breakthrough, such as intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, these odds could shift rapidly. At 1.8¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced by April 7—a 55x return, a long shot given the current climate.
Keep an eye on CENTCOM statements and any shifts in Trump’s rhetoric. A softening tone from the US or Iran could impact market expectations, but for now, military actions are driving the narrative.
Markets Impacted
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